Earthquakes

The charts show the trends in earthquake activity around the world, in all magnitude categories, for years 1990 through 2003. Based upon a linear trend, magnitude categories in red show an increase in the worldwide frequency of earthquakes. 87% of all recorded earthquakes measure between 2.0 and 4.9 in magnitude, the three fastest growing magnitude categories. Earthquakes measuring 7.0 and above are very few, only about 0.1% of all earthquakes. It seems phenomenal to me that quakes in the magnitude range of 5.0 - 5.9 show no increase in frequency. Worldwide frequency of earthquakes in the 5.0 to 5.9 magnitude category actually show a very small decrease in linear trend in frequency over the time period.

The following 12-Year Trend stats can be found at the USGS website, under 'Earthquake Facts and Statistics': http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/eqstats.html. The historical stats posted at the USGS website are occasionally revised up and down in the following year for previous years, for reasons unknown to me. The revisions often go back through a few years or more. The USGS earthquake statistics posted here at Believer's Home Page have been updated for the latest USGS data revisions as of 4/15/2010, for 2008 back through 1990. As soon as the 2009 data is complete I'll post it here and update the graphs.

The USGS now says, "Starting in January 2009, the USGS National Earthquake Information Center no longer locates earthquakes smaller than magnitude 4.5 outside the United States, unless we receive specific information that the earthquake was felt or caused damage." This means the USGS no longer consolidates earthquake data as before, and so I will not be able to continue into 2009 the 12-Year Trend Worldwide chart given below, nor the following graphs which are based upon it, since the data is no longer can compare "apples to apples".

Since I'm interested in this scientific data as it relates to prophetic Biblical events, the data the USGS now puts out is of no use to me whatsoever. To me the data no longer has any correlative summary benefits. To me now it's simply empty and meaningless data. From 2009 going forward the USGS data can no longer help me see the coming fulfillment of what Jesus said in Mat. 24:7b. What difference does it make now to report that one earthquake killed 10,000 versus 200 earthquakes killed 10,000. Who cares about how many earthquakes it took, especially since so many earthquakes are no longer counted and included in the data? Now, is there any more value to the data than that? Now maybe we should stop paying government workers to produce meaningless earthquake frequency data, and start paying them to get out there and help clean up the dead bodies and devastation in the aftermath of earthquakes and tsunamis.

12-Year Trend Worldwide

In the charts, the legends show the magnitude sizes, and the black linear trend lines show the gradual increase/decrease in earthquake frequency over time.

As can be plainly seen from the USGS data, the frequency of worldwide earthquakes in the 2.0 to 4.9 magnitude categories are growing at the greatest rate compared to all other magnitude categories, with earthquake frequency in the 4.0 to 4.9 magnitude category growing at the greatest rate. But I see something in the chart which may suggests an anomaly in the USGS data, which is the apparent inverse growth rate between 2.0 to 2.9 and 4.0 to 4.9 magnitude categories. When 2.0 to 2.9 shows a drop in frequency 4.0 to 4.9 shows an increase in frequency, and the reciprocal. Whereas the three magnitude categories from magnitudes 1.0 to 3.9 appear to be somewhat in harmony in their frequency growth trends.

The following few paragraphs are quoted from the following USGS site in 2002:

http://gldss7.cr.usgs.gov/neis/general/increase_in_earthquakes.html

"Are Earthquakes Really on the Increase?

We continue to be asked by many people throughout the world if earthquakes are on the increase. Although it may seem that we are having more earthquakes, earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater have remained fairly constant.

A partial explanation may lie in the fact that in the last twenty years, we have definitely had an increase in the number of earthquakes we have been able to locate each year. This is because of the tremendous increase in the number of seismograph stations in the world and the many improvements in global communications. In 1931, there were about 350 stations operating in the world; today, there are more that 8,000 stations and the data now comes in rapidly from these stations by electronic mail, internet and satellite. This increase in the number of stations and the more timely receipt of data has allowed us and other seismological centers to locate earthquakes more rapidly and to locate many small earthquakes which were undetected in earlier years. The NEIC now locates about 20,000 earthquakes each year or approximately 50 per day. Also, because of the improvements in communications and the increased interest in the environment and natural disasters, the public now learns about more earthquakes.

According to long-term records (since about 1900), we expect about 18 major earthquakes (7.0 - 7.9) and one great earthquake (8.0 or above) in any given year. However, let's take a look at what has happened in the past 31 years, from 1969 through 2001.

Our records show that 1992 is the first time that we have reached or exceeded the long-term average number of major earthquakes since 1971. The long-term average for the number of earthquakes was exceeded in 1970, 1971, 1992, 1995, and 1996, but there was less than half the average number of events in 1984, 1986, 1988 and 1989. The number of events in 2001, is once again been below the long-term average." - end of quote.

My Analysis Of The Data

The USGS' foggy answer to the apparent worldwide increase in the frequency of earthquakes is that there are simply more seismograph monitoring stations now, and so more earthquakes can be detected. This sounds plausible to me for a moment, if I don't think through it any further, or actually look at the data. But, if more seismographic monitoring stations throughout the world detect more earthquakes, then shouldn't they detect more earthquakes in all magnitude categories without partiality toward any particular category?

I'm by no means an expert. But I can look at the data and try to think, and question why more seismic monitoring stations planted into the earth's crust appear to find relatively no more No Magnitude category earthquakes? Smaller earthquakes, who's vibrations may not travel as far through the earth's crust, would seem to me to require more concentration of seismic detectors to find them, which agrees with what the USGS says they are doing. But yet, according to their own data the frequency of earthquakes in the No Magnitude, 1.0 - 1.9, 2.0 - 2.9, 4.0 - 4.9, and 8.0 - 9.9 categories appear to be dropping over the last few years while the number of earthquakes in the 3.0 - 3.9 and 6.0 - 6.9 magnitude categories appear to still be on the increase!

I'm guessing, since I'm no expert, that to seismographic monitoring stations planted in the ground in the middle of Los Angelos, that what may to them measure as an 8.0 magnitude earthquake, may measure to seismographic monitoring stations planted in Santa Barbara as only a 2.5 magnitude earthquake, given their distance away from Los Angelos, the time interval between when the 8.0 was measured in Los Angelos and when the 2.5 magnitude was measured in Santa Barbara, and the make-up and variations in the density of the earth's crust between those two points. I'm guessing it is somewhat difficult for the USGS to differentiate between two separate and distinct earthquakes occurring, one each in both Los Angelos and Santa Barbara, as opposed to one single earthquake being measured at two different locations which are distant from one another. I'm guessing that this consideration, or something similar to it, must be factored into the data the USGS is posting at their web sites.

So why does 5.0 to 5.9 magnitude category show relatively no growth up or down in earthquake frequency over the roughly last two decades, while the three categories of magnitude below it and one above it show tremendous variations and growth in earthquake frequency during the same period? Is the earth stubbornly not producing any more earthquakes in the 5.0 - 5.9 magnitude category in spite of more seismographic detector implantations in the earth's crust to search them out? Or are the additional seismographic measuring devices being intentionally attenuated to filter out earthquakes in the 5.0 - 5.9 magnitude category? Neither of these explanations seems plausible to me to explain the utter lack of earthquake frequency growth in the 5.0 - 5.9 magnitude category over the last two decades. And so to me the explanation that more seismographic measuring devices are being implanted in the earth's crust as the reason for more earthquakes being detected, doesn't seem entirely true.

To me, the apparent lack of growth in the number of earthquakes in the No Magnitude, 1.0 - 1.9, and 5.0 to 5.9 magnitude categories presents a very curious phenomena, if the USGS data is correct, in contrast to the USGS claim that more seismic monitoring stations are finding more earthquakes. Why shouldn't the increase in seismographic monitoring stations detect more earthquakes across all magnitude categories without partiality?

I can think of several possibly plausible arguments which can both explain and explain away the apparent worldwide increase in earthquake frequency, aside form the installation of more seismographic monitoring stations. But may I suggest only one? IF the seismographic monitoring stations are finding more earthquakes to monitor and measure, but since the No Magnitude, 1.0 to 1.9 magnitude and 5.0 to 5.9 magnitude categories show no significant trended increase in earthquake frequency proportional to the rate of increase in seismic monitoring stations, then the worldwide frequency of earthquake occurrences in these three magnitude categories would need to actually diminish at the same rate as the rate of increase in the number of seismographic monitoring stations coming on-line, in order for the slope of their linear frequency trends to remain virtually flat. This I find very hard to believe.

The very lack of increase in the worldwide frequency of earthquake occurrences in the No Magnitude, 1.0 - 1.9, and 5.0 to 5.9 magnitude categories seems to actually refute the USGS argument that the increase in seismic monitoring stations is responsible for the apparent increase in the worldwide frequency of earthquake occurrences in the other magnitude categories!

Again I suggest, is the earth sponsoring a moratorium on earthquakes in the No Magnitude, 1.0 to 1.9 magnitude and 5.0 to 5.9 magnitude categories? That's not plausible to me. Therefore what seems plausible to me is that the USGS data may be flawed somehow, and the systemic flaw is directly associated with these magnitude categories. It's seems very possible to me that from only the face of the USGS published data, without knowing more about what's driving the data, that it may be impossible for most everyone viewing this earthquake frequency data online to make anything meaningful out of it. In which case I would like to see, along with the USGS data, a bit more detailed explanation of the data gathering process, how the data is derived, and whether the seismographic detectors are attenuated for only certain magnitude categories, etc..

Because of the inverse growth rates in earthquake frequency between the magnitude categories of 2.0 to 2.9, 3.0 - 3.9, 4.0 to 4.9, and 6.0 - 6.9, to the flat growth in earthquake frequency in the magnitude categories of No Magnitude, 1.0 to 1.9, and 5.0 to 5.9, I question the quality of the data. Personally, I'm going to keep watching for an apparent increase in all magnitude categories of earthquake frequency, but especially in these magnitude categories, which phenomenally show no apparent increase in earthquake frequency to coincide with the increase in worldwide seismographic monitoring stations.

From a perspective of the ancient Judeo-Christian writings, the holy scriptures give us some information regarding earthquakes: 1 Kings 19:11-12; Isaiah 29:6; Amos 1:1; Zechariah 14:5; Matthew 8:24, 24:7, 27:54, 28:2; Mark 13:8; Luke 21:11; Acts 16:26; Revelation 6:12, 8:5, 11:13, 11:19, 16:18.

At least one tsunami, as a result of an earthquake, is recorded in the holy scriptures. The words in parentheses are those in the Greek text.

Matthew 8:23 And (kai) he (autō) having embarked (embanti) into (eis) a ship (ploion), the (hoi) disciples (mathetai) of him (autou) followed out (ēkolouthēsan) to him (autō).

Matthew 8:24 And (kai) behold (idou), a great (megas) earthquake (seismos) was aroused (egeneto) in (en) to the (tē) sea (thalassē), and so (hōste) the (tōn) waves (kumaton) covered (kaluptesthai) under (hupo) the (to) ship (ploion). But (de) he (autos) was down asleep (ekatheude)!

According to what Jesus Christ said, as quoted by the disciple Matthew in the book of Matthew chapter 24, the signs of the last days shall be so intense and thusly obvious to everyone that there could be no doubt as to whether they are the signs of the end times.

May the peace of the highest God rule in the hearts of those who have believed upon the name of His son, Jesus Christ.